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Important Distinction: Homes Are Less Affordable, Not Unaffordable

Beyond Realty

Real Estate

Important Distinction: Homes Are Less Affordable, Not Unaffordable
Important Distinction: Homes Are Less Affordable, Not Unaffordable | MyKCM

It’s impossible to research the subject of buying a home without coming across a headline declaring that the fall in home affordability is a crisis. However, when we add context to the most recent affordability statistics, we soon realize that, though homes are less affordable than they have been over the last few years, they are more affordable than they historically have been.

Black Knight, a premier provider of data and analytics for the mortgage industry, just released their latest Monthly Mortgage Monitor which includes a new analysis of the affordability situation. Here’s what the report reveals:

“The monthly payment required to purchase the average priced home with a 20% down 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased by nearly 20% (+$210) over the first nine months of 2021, . . . It now requires 21.6% of the median household income to make the monthly mortgage payment on the average home purchase, the least affordable housing has been since 30-year rates rose to nearly 5% back in late 2018.”

Important Distinction: Homes Are Less Affordable, Not Unaffordable | MyKCM

Basically, the report shows that homes are less affordable today than at any other time in the last three years. However, in a previous report earlier this year, Black Knight calculated that the percentage of the median household income to make the monthly mortgage payment on the average home purchase over the last 25 years was 23.6% (see graph below):Today’s payment-to-income ratio is more affordable than the average over the last 25 years. Given that context, we can see that American households still have the same ability to be homeowners as their parents did 20 years ago.

This confirms the recent analysis of ATTOM Data resources where Todd Teta, Chief Product and Technology Officer, explains:

“The typical median-priced home around the U.S. remains affordable to workers earning an average wage, despite prices that keep going through the roof. Super-low interests and rising pay continue to be the main reasons why.”

Bottom Line

It’s true that it’s less affordable to buy a home today than it has been the last few years. However, it’s more affordable to buy today than the average over the last 25 years. In other words, homes are less affordable, but they’re not unaffordable. That’s an important distinction.

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Why Most People Are Still Glad They Bought a Home With everything going on, it’s understandable if you’re wondering if you’d regret buying right now.  Everyday expenses cost more. Mortgage rates are higher than you’d like. And when the economy feels uncertain, taking on a mortgage can feel like a much bigger leap. But here’s some perspective that may help… Most people who already made that leap would do it again. According to a recent survey from NerdWallet, the vast majority of recent buyers (74%) were glad they bought their current home. Only a very small 3% of people regret it: And here’s a big reason why so many people feel it was worth it, even now. Homeownership Is a Long-Term PlayWhen you’re deciding whether to buy, it’s easy to focus on what’s happening right now. What’s today’s mortgage rate? Are prices going up or down? Those things matter. But don’t get so caught up in buying in the perfect moment that you miss the bigger picture. A home isn’t typically something you buy for just a year or two. It’s a longer-term play. And when you zoom out, it all starts to fall into perspective – especially if you look at home prices and equity. According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices nationally have risen 33.4% over just the past five years (see map below): And that appreciation has helped current homeowners build some serious wealth. Research from Bankrate shows homeowners gained an average of nearly $150,000 in wealth over the past five years as equity steadily rose across 90% of major metro areas. That’s one of the biggest benefits of homeownership. As you pay down your mortgage and your home appreciates over time, your ownership stake – your equity – can grow. Now, Zoom Out Even FurtherThe five-year numbers are impressive. But the numbers get even more dramatic when you look at decades instead of individual market cycles. FHFA data shows home prices nationally have risen 336% since 1991. Sit with that for a second. Three hundred percent (see map below):   That doesn't mean prices go up every single year. And it doesn't mean buying is automatically the right decision for everyone today. You should only buy when the numbers (and the payment) work for you. What it does show is why trying to perfectly time the market can make you miss the bigger picture.  Over time, homeowners gain a lot of equity. And that equity can eventually become a powerful financial resource. As Freddie Mac explains:  “Your home's equity is part of your total wealth as a homeowner. If you decide to sell your home, the equity you have built over time will come back to you in the sale. . . If it's time to upsize or downsize, you can use that cash for the down payment on your next home.” Basically, if you can afford to do it, buying a home now could set you up for future moves. And just in case you’re someone who’s worried about what happens if prices do fall, after you buy, remember: you’re not buying for one year. Prices can dip. They have before. But historically, they’ve risen far more over the long run. And the longer you own your home, the more time you have to ride out those ups and downs and keep building equity. Bottom LineDon’t let today’s uncertainty make you lose sight of what homeownership can do over time. Most homeowners say they’d make the same choice again. And decades of home-price growth help explain why. If you’re wondering whether buying makes sense for you right now, let’s look at the numbers together – and what owning a home could mean for you in the years ahead.

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