Darren Dowling
Affordability has been one of the biggest hurdles for homebuyers in Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and across Manatee and Charlotte Counties over the past few years. Between fast-rising home prices and mortgage rates that felt like a moving target, many potential buyers were left unsure about when—or if—they should make a move.
But recently, there’s a reason for optimism: mortgage rates have begun to stabilize, and that’s making it easier to plan with confidence.
Over the last year, mortgage rates have seen plenty of ups and downs. But in recent months, they’ve settled into a more predictable range. Instead of the large spikes we saw in previous years, current rates have stayed within a relatively narrow half-point band. (see graph below):
According to HousingWire:
“Analysts, economists and mortgage professionals are coining this quarter’s activity as one of the most ‘calm’ periods for mortgage rates in recent memory.”
For buyers across Sarasota, Bradenton, and North Port, that calm is a welcome shift.
Let’s face it—volatility makes planning difficult. When rates jump unexpectedly, it’s tough to estimate your monthly mortgage payment or lock in a loan with confidence.
But with rates now more predictable, homebuyers in areas like Lakewood Ranch, Venice, and Punta Gorda can explore their options with greater clarity. This stability means:
✅ More accurate budgeting
✅ Easier comparisons between lenders
✅ Reduced fear of “bad timing”
Even if rates aren't exactly where you hoped they’d be, this consistent pattern is making it easier to take action.
While many buyers in Sarasota and beyond are holding out for the "perfect rate," top economists suggest that strategy may not pay off. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, puts it plainly:
“I expect a generally downward trend for rates this year, but at a slow enough pace that it might not be noticeable in any given month.”
And Jeff Ostrowski of Bankrate adds:
“Trying to time mortgage rates is really difficult. There’s no guarantee that rates are going to be any more favorable in three months or six months.”
So if you’ve been waiting to buy in Manatee, Sarasota, or Charlotte County, it might be time to revisit your plan. (see graph below):
Forecasts from major housing analysts indicate that mortgage rates will likely remain in the mid-6% range through 2026. For those considering a move to Southwest Florida—whether it's a beachside condo in Sarasota or a family home in Lakewood Ranch—this could be your moment of opportunity.
Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, notes:
“Mortgage rates have moved within a narrow range for the past few months. Rate stability, improving inventory and slower house price growth are an encouraging combination.”
That combo creates a more favorable environment for buyers and reduces the fear of future rate surprises.
Yes, affordability remains a challenge—but thanks to recent mortgage rate stability, the housing market in Sarasota and surrounding counties is becoming more manageable for buyers.
If you're thinking about buying in Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, Venice, or Port Charlotte, now’s the time to revisit your goals.
Want to know what a home in your price range looks like under today’s rates? Let’s run the numbers together and help you plan your next move with confidence.
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