Darren Dowling
After a few years of a slow-moving market, 2026 may mark a turning point for Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and nearby Manatee and Charlotte counties. Experts forecast increased home sales, making it a great time to consider buying or selling.
Many potential sellers paused over the past few years due to affordability challenges. That pause won’t last forever. As local demand grows, more people are expected to act in 2026, creating opportunities for buyers and sellers alike (see graph below):
Two main factors are driving this trend: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s break down what the latest forecasts reveal for Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and surrounding areas.
Lower mortgage rates remain a key driver for buyers. After peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease, and experts predict this trend could continue throughout 2026 (see graph below):
Keep in mind: rate declines usually happen gradually. Forecasts suggest rates could move into the low 6% range, or even the high 5% range by mid-2026. Even modest drops can make a noticeable difference for your monthly payment and overall affordability.
For Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch buyers, even a small reduction in mortgage rates can save hundreds of dollars monthly, improving access to homes and creating more opportunities in the market.
What about home prices? Forecasts indicate that Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and surrounding areas will see moderate price growth. Lower rates are expected to bring more buyers into the market, maintaining upward pressure on prices—but without drastic spikes.
Even areas experiencing slight declines remain well above prices from a few years ago. Local inventory levels will impact appreciation, but experts agree that the overall trend will be steady and sustainable (see graph below):
For buyers, this predictability makes planning a budget easier. Sellers also benefit from steady appreciation, allowing for more confidence in timing their move.
After a quieter few years, 2026 is shaping up to be an active year in Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and neighboring Manatee and Charlotte counties. With rising sales, slightly lower mortgage rates, and moderate price growth, both buyers and sellers have reasons to be optimistic.
Will 2026 be your year to make a move? Let’s connect to discuss how to navigate the local housing market and make the most of the opportunities ahead.
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