Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year: What It Means for Southwest Florida

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year: What It Means for Southwest Florida

With home prices shifting and mortgage rates fluctuating, many buyers and sellers across Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and Venice are wondering what the second half of 2025 has in store. Is it the right time to make a move? What trends are shaping the market? Fortunately, leading housing experts have started to release their mid-year forecasts — and the outlook offers a few reasons to stay optimistic.

As Business Insider reports:

“As mortgage rates go down this year, affordability may improve slightly for homebuyers. Inventory is also expected to grow, which should help moderate price growth and make finding a home easier.”

Let’s take a closer look at how this national insight plays out here in Southwest Florida.

1. Mortgage Rates May Ease, Offering Slight Relief

While we’re not expecting a dramatic drop, economists project a gradual decline in mortgage rates as economic conditions stabilize. Even a modest dip can significantly impact your monthly payment — which is especially valuable in popular areas like Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch, where price points can vary.

Rates are still closely tied to broader economic factors like inflation and job growth, so expect some fluctuations. That’s why timing the market isn’t always a winning strategy — staying informed and prepared is. (see graph below):

2. Inventory Is Growing – and That’s Good News for Buyers

So far in 2025, we’ve already seen a shift. More homeowners in Southwest Florida are re-entering the market, and that’s boosting local inventory. Sellers who’ve waited on the sidelines are now realizing that life doesn’t pause for mortgage rates — and that’s creating more opportunity for today’s buyers.

According to Lance Lambert, Co-founder of ResiClub:

“The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year . . . strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher.”

Locally, this trend is evident. We’re seeing more listings hit the market in Venice and Lakewood Ranch, especially in popular neighborhoods where inventory was tight just months ago.

3. Home Price Growth Is Slowing — But Still Rising

Experts still expect prices to rise, but at a slower pace — with most forecasts pointing to around 2% growth nationally. For Southwest Florida, this moderation is a welcome sign. It gives buyers a bit more room to act, without the pressure of runaway price increases. (see graph below):

However, it’s important to remember: real estate is hyper-local. In-demand communities like Palmer Ranch, Waterside at Lakewood Ranch, or Venice Island may still experience stronger price gains due to limited supply and high buyer interest.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re considering buying or selling in Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, or Venice, it’s clear the second half of 2025 is shaping up to be more favorable than many expected. With mortgage rates showing signs of softening, more homes on the market, and price growth slowing, the conditions are gradually shifting in your favor.

Let’s connect to talk through what’s happening in your neighborhood and how you can make the most of it.