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Is It Better to Buy a Home Now in Sarasota or Lakewood Ranch, or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates?

Darren Dowling

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Is It Better to Buy a Home Now in Sarasota or Lakewood Ranch, or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates?




Mortgage rates remain one of the hottest topics in today’s Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch real estate market—and for good reason. In early August, after a weaker-than-expected jobs report, the bond market shifted and mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point of the year at 6.55%.

For many homebuyers in Sarasota, Manatee, and Charlotte counties, even a small drop sparks hope that rates may finally trend lower. But is it realistic to expect rates to fall significantly soon (see graph below):

a graph with numbers and lines

What Experts Forecast for Mortgage Rates

According to the latest housing market forecasts, mortgage rates are not expected to drop dramatically in the near future. Most experts predict they’ll hover in the mid-to-low 6% range through 2026. While that means no major declines, small shifts like we just saw are likely each time new economic data is released.

For buyers across Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, Venice, North Port, and Port Charlotte, this means waiting for a huge drop may not be the best strategy.

What Mortgage Rate Would Bring Buyers Back?

The benchmark rate buyers are watching is 6%. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that if rates dip to that point:

  • 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home.

  • Over 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months.

That’s a wave of pent-up demand ready to hit the market. In fact, Fannie Mae predicts rates could touch 6% next year. But here’s the tradeoff: if you’re waiting along with everyone else, you’ll likely face tougher competition, fewer home options, and rising prices once demand surges.

Why Buying Now in Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, or Charlotte County Could Make Sense

Buyers currently have a unique window of opportunity in the Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch housing market:

  • Inventory is up: More homes to choose from in Sarasota, Manatee, and Charlotte counties.

  • Slower price growth: Home prices have stabilized compared to previous years.

  • Negotiating power: With less competition right now, you may be able to secure a better deal.

As NAR explains, “Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market.”

In Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch, this decision is especially important. Waiting could mean missing today’s opportunities, only to face bidding wars tomorrow.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates aren’t expected to fall sharply this year, and waiting for 6% could mean buying in a much more competitive market. If you want more negotiating power, more inventory, and potentially better pricing, the time to act in Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, and across Manatee and Charlotte counties is now.

Let’s talk about your options in today’s market and whether it makes sense to move forward before demand heats up. Call Darren Dowling at (941) 204-0493 to discuss your real estate goals in Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, or Charlotte County.

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Why Most People Are Still Glad They Bought a Home With everything going on, it’s understandable if you’re wondering if you’d regret buying right now.  Everyday expenses cost more. Mortgage rates are higher than you’d like. And when the economy feels uncertain, taking on a mortgage can feel like a much bigger leap. But here’s some perspective that may help… Most people who already made that leap would do it again. According to a recent survey from NerdWallet, the vast majority of recent buyers (74%) were glad they bought their current home. Only a very small 3% of people regret it: And here’s a big reason why so many people feel it was worth it, even now. Homeownership Is a Long-Term PlayWhen you’re deciding whether to buy, it’s easy to focus on what’s happening right now. What’s today’s mortgage rate? Are prices going up or down? Those things matter. But don’t get so caught up in buying in the perfect moment that you miss the bigger picture. A home isn’t typically something you buy for just a year or two. It’s a longer-term play. And when you zoom out, it all starts to fall into perspective – especially if you look at home prices and equity. According to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices nationally have risen 33.4% over just the past five years (see map below): And that appreciation has helped current homeowners build some serious wealth. Research from Bankrate shows homeowners gained an average of nearly $150,000 in wealth over the past five years as equity steadily rose across 90% of major metro areas. That’s one of the biggest benefits of homeownership. As you pay down your mortgage and your home appreciates over time, your ownership stake – your equity – can grow. Now, Zoom Out Even FurtherThe five-year numbers are impressive. But the numbers get even more dramatic when you look at decades instead of individual market cycles. FHFA data shows home prices nationally have risen 336% since 1991. Sit with that for a second. Three hundred percent (see map below):   That doesn't mean prices go up every single year. And it doesn't mean buying is automatically the right decision for everyone today. You should only buy when the numbers (and the payment) work for you. What it does show is why trying to perfectly time the market can make you miss the bigger picture.  Over time, homeowners gain a lot of equity. And that equity can eventually become a powerful financial resource. As Freddie Mac explains:  “Your home's equity is part of your total wealth as a homeowner. If you decide to sell your home, the equity you have built over time will come back to you in the sale. . . If it's time to upsize or downsize, you can use that cash for the down payment on your next home.” Basically, if you can afford to do it, buying a home now could set you up for future moves. And just in case you’re someone who’s worried about what happens if prices do fall, after you buy, remember: you’re not buying for one year. Prices can dip. They have before. But historically, they’ve risen far more over the long run. And the longer you own your home, the more time you have to ride out those ups and downs and keep building equity. Bottom LineDon’t let today’s uncertainty make you lose sight of what homeownership can do over time. Most homeowners say they’d make the same choice again. And decades of home-price growth help explain why. If you’re wondering whether buying makes sense for you right now, let’s look at the numbers together – and what owning a home could mean for you in the years ahead.

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