Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates: Is 3% Coming Back?

Understanding Today’s Mortgage Rates: Is 3% Coming Back?

In Southwest Florida, from Sarasota to Venice to Lakewood Ranch, many homebuyers are pausing their plans, holding out hope for mortgage rates to fall back to the historic 3% range we saw a few years ago. But here’s the reality: those ultra-low rates were a temporary response to an extraordinary moment in time—and they’re not coming back anytime soon.

During the height of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, 3% mortgage rates opened the door for buyers across the country, making homeownership more affordable and increasing purchasing power. In areas like Lakewood Ranch and Venice, that translated into fierce competition and fast-moving markets. But those rates were driven by emergency economic policies designed to stimulate the economy.

Today, the economic landscape has shifted. Mortgage rates are now hovering in the high 6% to low 7% range, and while many experts anticipate a gradual decrease in the coming months, most agree: a return to 3% is not in the forecast.

Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, puts it this way:

“While Zillow expects mortgage rates to end the year near mid-6%, barring any unforeseen shocks, that path might be bumpy.”

What Homebuyers in Southwest Florida Should Know

Waiting for rates to drop back to 3% may mean waiting for a very long time—and missing out on great opportunities here in Sarasota County and beyond. Instead of delaying your plans indefinitely, it may be smarter to focus on what you can control:
✔ Your budget
✔ Your credit
✔ Your timing
✔ Partnering with a trusted local real estate professional

Working with a knowledgeable agent in Sarasota, Venice, or Lakewood Ranch—alongside a trusted lender—can help you uncover creative solutions like down payment assistance programs, alternative loan structures, and negotiation strategies that fit your unique situation.

And here's something important to consider: if rates do ease slightly later this year, as many forecasts suggest, more buyers will likely jump back into the market. That means more competition—and possibly fewer options.

Now is your opportunity to get ahead of that surge. With inventory in Southwest Florida at its highest in years, you may find a wider selection of homes and more negotiating power than if you wait for a crowded market.

As Realtor.com puts it:

“Staying out of the market in hopes of a rate drop that never comes can lead to missed opportunities. Rising home prices, rent increases, and inflation might outpace any future savings on interest. And if rates do fall sharply again, buyers could face an entirely different challenge: surging competition.”

Bottom Line

The 3% mortgage rates we saw a few years ago were never meant to be the norm—they were the exception. Today’s rates may feel high by comparison, but they’re part of a more balanced, long-term market.

For buyers across Southwest Florida—from the beaches of Venice to the master-planned communities of Lakewood Ranch—now is the time to reset expectations and make a solid plan with the right team on your side.

Connect with a local real estate agent who knows the Sarasota market and can guide you through your options. With expert insights and a clear strategy, you can navigate today’s market with confidence—and take a smart step toward your next home.