Sarasota & Lakewood Ranch Real Estate Market 2025 Recap and 2026 Forecast
Darren Dowling
Darren Dowling
If you followed national headlines in 2025, you likely heard words like slowdown, correction, and even crash. But the Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch real estate market tells a much more nuanced story.
At the state level, 2025 was a reset year - not a collapse.
Florida’s housing market cooled from the pandemic-era frenzy. Higher mortgage rates early in the year slowed activity, but by mid-to-late 2025, stabilization began:
Mortgage rates eased from the high 6% range toward the low-to-mid 6% range
Inventory increased across many Florida markets
Price growth flattened instead of spiking
Affordability improved to its best level in roughly three years
Instead of extreme bidding wars or dramatic price drops, the market became more balanced — creating a healthier environment for serious buyers and sellers.
National averages never fully reflect local dynamics. Here’s what actually happened in Sarasota County.
By April 2025:
Approximately 4,448 active listings
Over 30% increase year-over-year
Roughly 7 months of housing supply
That’s a major shift from the ultra-competitive 2-month supply environment seen in prior years.
By mid-2025:
Median single-family home price: ~$455,000 (down ~8% year-over-year)
Median condo/townhome price: ~$371,750 (down ~3%)
While prices softened from peak levels, they remained well above pre-2020 values — preserving significant equity for long-term homeowners.
Single-family median time to contract: ~60 days
Condos/townhomes: 70+ days to contract
Some properties exceeded 100 days to close
This shift gave buyers:
Time to conduct inspections properly
Room to negotiate price and terms
More choices within their budget
It also required sellers to price strategically and present homes competitively.
The biggest takeaway?
The market became segmented.
Well-priced, move-in-ready homes still sold.
Overpriced or outdated properties sat longer.
Lakewood Ranch continued to attract out-of-state buyers seeking:
Master-planned amenities
Strong schools
New construction communities
Florida Gulf Coast lifestyle
However, 2025 brought normalization.
Buyers gained leverage:
Negotiations on price
Closing cost concessions
Repair credits
More time to compare new construction vs resale
Despite slower pace, values held steady due to strong underlying demand drivers.
Lakewood Ranch did not experience a collapse it experienced balance.
Looking ahead to 2026, most real estate economists project cautious stability rather than volatility.
Forecasts suggest:
Rates stabilizing in the 6% range
Gradual easing rather than dramatic drops
Even modest stability improves planning and purchasing confidence.
Realtor.com projects approximately:
8–9% additional inventory growth nationally in 2026
Locally in Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch, that likely means:
More listings
More negotiating leverage
Reduced urgency-driven buying decisions
Instead of sharp appreciation:
Projected growth: 1–2% on average
Slower appreciation:
Improves affordability
Reduces correction risk
Creates more predictable planning conditions
2026 may feel very different from 2021–2022.
Buyers can expect:
More homes available in most price ranges
Fewer bidding wars
Stronger negotiation power
More inspection flexibility
Greater strategic planning opportunities
Affordability challenges remain, but conditions are measurably improving.
The strategy has changed but opportunity remains strong.
Sellers who:
Price realistically
Invest in preparation
Leverage professional marketing
Understand neighborhood-level data
Will continue to see solid results.
Many Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch homeowners still hold substantial equity built over the past several years.
In a balanced market, selective opportunity increases.
Investors should focus on:
Cash flow analysis
Rental demand trends
Cosmetic improvement properties
Growth corridors in Sarasota and Manatee County
Long-term appreciation potential
Underwriting matters more than speculation in this phase of the cycle.
If you’re considering buying, selling, or investing in 2026, here’s a simple framework:
Current equity
Purchase budget
Payment scenarios at different interest rates
Sarasota neighborhoods behave differently than county averages.
Lakewood Ranch villages vary significantly in performance.
Micro-market analysis matters.
The “perfect” time on a chart rarely aligns perfectly with life circumstances.
Strategic planning always outperforms emotional reaction.
If you’re serious about making a move in 2026, don’t rely on national headlines. Local data and neighborhood-specific insight matter more than ever.
Meet with a local expert who understands:
• Sarasota real estate trends
• Lakewood Ranch community data
• Florida Gulf Coast buyer migration patterns
• Strategic pricing in a balanced market
A personalized strategy session allows you to build a clear, focused 2026 action plan tailored to your goals, timeline, and financial objectives.
Let’s Create Your 2026 Plan
Beyond Realty
2170 Main Street, Suite 103, Sarasota, FL 34237
941-204-0493
Darren Dowling is a Sarasota-based real estate broker-owner specializing in Sarasota and Lakewood Ranch residential real estate, new construction, and relocation.
A data-driven look at prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and what buyers and sellers should expect in 2026 across Sarasota and Florida’s Gulf Coast.
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